Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
