Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
